Australia's Worst Natual Disaster.

[Paladin Sheppard]

173 dead and that number is expected to rise....Dear god, we've been watching this unfold on the news for the last 4 and a bit days and its not expected to stop soon....



http://www.theage.com.au/national/blazes-across-victoria-as-bushfire-disaster-toll-rises-20090210-82ip.html

I wish I could add more but this...This is just staggering.

The pictures from news choppers and cameras on the ground have some shocking images. Burnt out cars of people attempting to flee and homes totally erased from the earth. I don't think even a war could cause this much destruction to this place.

And whats worse...They were deliberately lit....

[llearch n'n'daCorna]

They often are, sadly.

The Ash Wednesday fires were pretty horrific. I have to wonder if this sort of thing is required (by the bush itself, I mean) every 30 or so years...

[Valynth]

They often are, sadly.

The Ash Wednesday fires were pretty horrific. I have to wonder if this sort of thing is required (by the bush itself, I mean) every 30 or so years...

From what I understand, some parts of California are like that and Austrialia seems to have a similar bush, but I'm not sure if this part Australia does that.

If the people who did this had come forward saying "we were trying to burn the bush so it wouldn't be at such a high risk of spontaneous combustion, but things got out of control" at the start of this, I'd be inclined to be lenient (provided this part of Australia acts that way), but after this long with no confessions, the people who did this are just assholes.

I hope Australia has the death penalty, because I think 173+ murders is a suitable invocation of such a deterent method.

Also, not to be a dick about this, but if it was started by humans, I'd say it was the "worst arson" rather than natural disaster.

[Tapewolf]

I hope Australia has the death penalty, because I think 173+ murders is a suitable invocation of such a deterent method.

And if it's some 12-year old kid?

[Valynth]

And if it's some 12-year old kid?

Odds are, due to the scale and attention this has gotten, I'm fairly certain a kid would have confessed a good bit ago.

[Janus Whitefurr]

The real frightening part as I once said to llearch is less about losing homes, and more that entire country towns (Marysville was one, if I recall correctly) are being literally wiped off the map. Entire towns, just gone, like that. That's what horrifies me.

Not every fire was deliberately lit though - some are confirmed to have been lightning strikes, one was presumed to be a cigarette butt toss, but there is at least one that has been confirmed to have been deliberately lit. It doesn't make the disaster any less disasterous....

Frightening fact number 2, the death toll exceeds that of the Ash Wednesday fires. ._.

[Zina]

And if it's some 12-year old kid?

Odds are, due to the scale and attention this has gotten, I'm fairly certain a kid would have confessed a good bit ago.

....are you kidding? If it was a kid, they're probably too scared to confess.

[Valynth]

And if it's some 12-year old kid?

Odds are, due to the scale and attention this has gotten, I'm fairly certain a kid would have confessed a good bit ago.

....are you kidding? If it was a kid, they're probably too scared to confess.

If it was a simple "theft of something insanely valuable" kind of thing, I'd be inclined to agree, but this would go far over the typical "I might get caught" threshold of youthful deviancy to the point where it enters the territory of "it's so damned obvious that I'd better tell the truth and hope it earns me some leniency."

All of which is a moot point since they're currently looking for a man in connection with the fires.

[Zina]

I'm not really sure how kids work where you're from, but where I'm from, kids will lie straight to your face, even when caught red-handed. And considering the grand scale of things and how the arsonists are being called "mass murderers" if it was a kid there's not way they would come forward, at least not anytime soon.

So, do they have a suspect now, or something?

[llearch n'n'daCorna]

I'm not really sure how kids work where you're from, but where I'm from, kids will lie straight to your face, even when caught red-handed.

... red handed, cookie crumbs on their face, the cookie jar in pieces on the floor, cookie in their hands, and nobody else in the room.

"No, I didn't steal any cookies."

My son and I have had conversations along the lines of I'm not going to be angry at him for telling the truth. I might be upset, but that's different. And he still tries to get away with it, so I don't think he's quite grasped it yet...

[The1Kobra]

So, do they have a suspect now, or something?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/7880332.stm
Doesn't look like it, and I don't think they've ruled out the possibility of the disaster being natural either. Either way, it looks like they're taking the investigation quite seriously, I just hope they're able to find the answer.
Death count is at 181....

[Zina]

All of which is a moot point since they're currently looking for a man in connection with the fires.

So, do they have a suspect now, or something?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/7880332.stm
Doesn't look like it, and I don't think they've ruled out the possibility of the disaster being natural either. Either way, it looks like they're taking the investigation quite seriously, I just hope they're able to find the answer.
Death count is at 181....

o i c.

[Valynth]

I'm not really sure how kids work where you're from, but where I'm from, kids will lie straight to your face, even when caught red-handed. And considering the grand scale of things and how the arsonists are being called "mass murderers" if it was a kid there's not way they would come forward, at least not anytime soon.

Lying even on that base level requires a certain amount of calmness.  Running from a fire that got out of your control is not exactly a very calm moment.

There's also the fact that the fire is life threatening and such things typically override the urge to lie.  Especially since this is not a desired outcome on part of the child.  As such the child will typically run to the nearest adult/other child, blurt out what happened and hope the adult/other child will save him/her.

To be honest I should of said "threatening" instead of "obvious."  I blame the lack of sleep.

My son and I have had conversations along the lines of I'm not going to be angry at him for telling the truth. I might be upset, but that's different. And he still tries to get away with it, so I don't think he's quite grasped it yet...

What?  Telling the truth or lying effectively?

All of which is a moot point since they're currently looking for a man in connection with the fires.

So, do they have a suspect now, or something?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/7880332.stm
Doesn't look like it, and I don't think they've ruled out the possibility of the disaster being natural either. Either way, it looks like they're taking the investigation quite seriously, I just hope they're able to find the answer.
Death count is at 181....

o i c.

Please don't hoist me on things that weren't in the article at hand at the time.  The man comment, however, was.

[Zina]

Allow me to explain the mind of a 12 year old.
"Oh, I just did something really really bad. At the moment, the reality of what I've done hasn't fully sunken in. I just know that everyone is really upset and if they ever found out I was the one that did it, they will be very very angry with me. I don't want them to be very angry with me, I think I'll just keep quiet."
I'm sure there are kids that tell the truth immediately, and would realize that they'd be found out eventually, but a typical kid will realize that at the moment they are not in trouble, and if they want it to remain that way, they will keep their mouths shut.

And please, show me something that says they are looking for a man, because all I've seen is that they have a suspect but have not released the gender or age.

[Valynth]

Allow me to explain the mind of a 12 year old.
"Oh, I just did something really really bad. At the moment, the reality of what I've done hasn't fully sunken in. I just know that everyone is really upset and if they ever found out I was the one that did it, they will be very very angry with me. I don't want them to be very angry with me, I think I'll just keep quiet."
I'm sure there are kids that tell the truth immediately, and would realize that they'd be found out eventually, but a typical kid will realize that at the moment they are not in trouble, and if they want it to remain that way, they will keep their mouths shut.

That sounds more like an 5-8 year old's thought pattern.

When I was 12 I at least knew that an out of control fire was life-threatening and therefore more important than dealing with later punish/scorn.

And please, show me something that says they are looking for a man, because all I've seen is that they have a suspect but have not released the gender or age.

"It's expected police will tomorrow release an image of a man sought for questioning over the fires."

page three of the article.

[Zina]

Then I guess you=every single 12 year old ever.

[Valynth]

Then I guess you=every single 12 year old ever.

So only I had the deductive resoning to figure out my life > no punishment?

Thank you for making me feel special Zina. 

[Zina]

Then I guess you=every single 12 year old ever.

So only I had the deductive resoning to figure out my life > no punishment?

Thank you for making me feel special Zina. 

No, try reading my last post before that a little harder. I think...I think you might be able to do it.

[llearch n'n'daCorna]

What?  Telling the truth or lying effectively?

Either. I don't have a problem with him learning both, actually. Most of the time, one needs to remain honest so that when one chooses to edit the truth, it's easier to get away with it...

[Mao]

Then I guess you=every single 12 year old ever.

...and I guess you've done extensive research in the fields of child psychology and have the data to prove your point on the matter and present it in a way that is in no way a put down on others and displays a professional thoroughness to the extent that it covers all children in every society/culture?

[Valynth]

So only I had the deductive resoning to figure out my life > no punishment?

Thank you for making me feel special Zina. 

No, try reading my last post before that a little harder. I think...I think you might be able to do it.

So I'm wrong for thinking that by the time a kid is about to enter his teens that he should at least have the basics of survival prioritizing?

Cause it's still a battle of life vs. the wheel of punishment.

What?  Telling the truth or lying effectively?

Either. I don't have a problem with him learning both, actually. Most of the time, one needs to remain honest so that when one chooses to edit the truth, it's easier to get away with it...

I believe the fitting quote is "the best lies have a grain of truth in them."

[Zina]

Then I guess you=every single 12 year old ever.

...and I guess you've done extensive research in the fields of child psychology and have the data to prove your point on the matter and present it in a way that is in no way a put down on others and displays a professional thoroughness to the extent that it covers all children in every society/culture?

No, I just deal with 12 year olds on a daily basis.
But hey, I guess your post works for Valynth's argument, too. *shrug*

So only I had the deductive resoning to figure out my life > no punishment?

Thank you for making me feel special Zina. 

No, try reading my last post before that a little harder. I think...I think you might be able to do it.

So I'm wrong for thinking that by the time a kid is about to enter his teens that he should at least have the basics of survival prioritizing?

Cause it's still a battle of life vs. the wheel of punishment.

No, but that was a good try.

I'm saying that YES, some kids might use common sense and realize they should do the right thing, but based on my experience, a kid will do whatever it takes to stay out of trouble. Or at least wont confess to something right away. Not because they are BAD, but because they might be SCARED. And right now, all of Australia is upset, so if it was a kid, they would be terrified.

Either way, it's a pretty hypothetical situation. But if it was a kid, I really doubt they'd come forward right away.

[Sunblink]

Stay safe, Pal.

[Tapewolf]

Stay safe, Pal.

Ew.  Is he around that way?  I know Turnsky's in Tasmania, but the other forumites I'm not so clear on.
But yes, best wishes to all concerned.

[Cogidubnus]

I think we were talking the other day about Australia's harsh climate and how those who live there are surely some sort of ubermensch, environment-defying people of hardiness. Like Keaton says, guys, stay safe.

[Lysander]

Yeah, makes me sad to hear about this. I hope you guys and everyone else in the area can be safe. The death toll is already too high... 

[Corgatha Taldorthar]

Woah, just found out about this through here. Tragic.

[Paladin Sheppard]

Keaton, Cog and the others that worry for me: I'm reasonably fine I live on the other side of Australia from these fires...

Which is not to say I don't have them over here.  At least five hot spots over here during the last week too, and three fires have been lit in the park in central Perth by the same man....

[Janus Whitefurr]

Stay safe, Pal.

Ew.  Is he around that way?  I know Turnsky's in Tasmania, but the other forumites I'm not so clear on.
But yes, best wishes to all concerned.

Silverfox is in north Queensland, far away from this stuff, but rather ironically she's dealing with the tail of a cyclone that's created a lot of bad weather and flooding. I live in New South Wales, which is kind of getting the edges of both the rain and the fires - stuck in the middle, heh - but again, at a safe distance. I'm not sure I know if anyone here is from Victoria, but my sister lives down there and while she's not directly affected, she's close enough to the blazes to have been informed that she may need to evacuate.

Newspaper report this morning confirms an arsonist for at least one of the fires (Gippsland), and there's fears the death toll could hit 300. Not a fun thing thing to wake up to.

[Roureem Egas]

Damn, that's pretty rough. I hope you guys stay safe.

I also hope there aren't too many eucalyptus trees near where you guys are. My biology professor told us in class that those trees can blow up if the oils in them get hot enough.