Results of the Haunted Ballroom

[techmaster-glitch]

   For awhile now, there's been some hard, numerical knowledge of this Haunted Ballroom board that I have been personally curious about for some time now. A few times, I've been tempted to take my best guess and use it as a point, but I never did, because I didn't actually -know-. On a whim, saturday night, I finally got around to collecting the information I wanted. Originally, this was just that; information that I just wanted to find out for myself. However, I shared the results of my data with llearch, and on his insistance, I am posting this information here for all to see. What you are about to learn may surprise you (but then again, it might not).


I counted all the individual RPs that have ever been on this board (up to and including RPs that are still ongoing, or have only just fallen apart "recently"). That number came to 87. There have been 87 RP starts. Of these 87, I sorted them into three categories; Flop, Fizzle, and Fly.

Flop: A failed RP. An OOC thread or a call for interest was started, but no interest was found, or no IC thread was ever created. These RPs never went anywhere, and they flopped into nothingness.
Fizzle: An RP that was only partially successful. This is an RP where an IC thread was started, or had enough interest to start an IC thread, but ended or was abandonded before it could reach 10 pages of posts. These RPs got started, but were unable to keep up momentum, and fizzled out. (Edit note: a "fizzle" for the purposes of this data is NOT an RP that never finished, I can't think of any here that actually have)
Fly: These are the RPs that went somewhere, that garnered lasting interest and playership, and exceeded 10 pages of posts. The successful RPs that flew.

53 out of all 87 RPs were Flops. 61%. For every five RPs attempted on this forum, three will never gain enough interest to start.

There were 13 Fizzles. 15% of RPs on this board managed to start, but were not able to keep going.

Fizzles and Flops combined comes out to 66 out of 87. That's 76% of RPs that will not be successful.

Things fall more into place now.

Fizzles and Flys, RPs that managed to start, come out to 34 out of 87, making 39%.

Of this, only 21. Only 21 out of all 87 RPs have actually achieved success. That's 24%.

That means that for every four RPs started on this board, three will be unsuccessful.

Only one will fly.


Ladies and gentlemen of the Haunted Ballroom, that is the landscape of this board.

[WhiteFox]

One in four? Damn.

That's a lot better then I would have expected.

[llearch n'n'daCorna]

Idle query, then.

Does this include the RPs that get archived to the Treasury? And how does your count deal with split threads? Y'know, where there's two IC threads for one RP.

[techmaster-glitch]

Does this include the RPs that get archived to the Treasury? And how does your count deal with split threads? Y'know, where there's two IC threads for one RP.

   Uhhh...hum. I'm not sure I understand exactly what you're talking about, but I do know that some RPs went on for so long (Norther Winds, The Castle, BotM) that chunks of them were split off and in the treasury, though they did all have one piece still in the Haunted Ballroom. I counted them all as one RP (like, for the purposes of this data-collecting, I counted an OOC and IC threads to be one RP). There was only one RP that I'm aware of that's in the treasury and doesn't have any part of it still in the HB, and that's the Character Lounge. I counted that.

[Gabi]

How did you count Doodle Adventure?

It's probably a Fizzle, but I'm still hoping someone else will post.

[Aisha deCabre]

Heh...interesting stuff there.  As I told the chums I speak with regularly via MSN, makes me rather proud to be a part of some of the ones that lasted.

It makes one wonder though just what that says about the RP section as a whole when it comes to interest.  IMHO, newbies beware, this is a tough crowd to please. 

[Gareeku]

Gee, thanks for reminding me my RP was a fizzle.

[techmaster-glitch]

How did you count Doodle Adventure?

It's probably a Fizzle, but I'm still hoping someone else will post.

Yeah, I had to count that one as a fizzle, as I did Dead Frontier and Nighttime Cleaners.
Sorry Gabi, that's just what the criteria was

It makes one wonder though just what that says about the RP section as a whole when it comes to interest.  IMHO, newbies beware, this is a tough crowd to please. 

I made that observation, too...

Gee, thanks for reminding me my RP was a fizzle.

Wait, are you talking about Furrae Chronicles? Didn't that one get -well- over ten pages?
That one flew, man. That one flew.

[Gabi]

Gee, thanks for reminding me my RP was a fizzle.

Wait, are you talking about Furrae Chronicles? Didn't that one get -well- over ten pages?
That one flew, man. That one flew.

Posting in agreement. And I'd still like to keep playing it if Gar is willing to resume it.

[llearch n'n'daCorna]

Does this include the RPs that get archived to the Treasury? And how does your count deal with split threads? Y'know, where there's two IC threads for one RP.

   Uhhh...hum. I'm not sure I understand exactly what you're talking about, but I do know that some RPs went on for so long (Norther Winds, The Castle, BotM) that chunks of them were split off and in the treasury, though they did all have one piece still in the Haunted Ballroom. I counted them all as one RP (like, for the purposes of this data-collecting, I counted an OOC and IC threads to be one RP). There was only one RP that I'm aware of that's in the treasury and doesn't have any part of it still in the HB, and that's the Character Lounge. I counted that.

My query was: did you count them as a "fly", specifically. That and "did you check to see if anything was entirely in the Treasury?"; both of which you answered, I think.

Thanks for that - and thanks for counting up the stats in the first place.

[WhiteFox]

This is kind of making me wonder a few things.

Who stopped responding more often; the GMs or the players?

How often were real life complications a factor? Sometimes dropping out of a game is unavoidable.

How often did player or GMs just not have fun with the game, and abandon it? Speaking up and saying something might straighten things out, and get the RP moving again. Or at least let the GM sort out why the RP fizzled, and avoid it next time.

How often did a GM or a player take the time to notify people that they could no longer participate in the game, or let people if know they would be unavailable for a time? Would such notifications increase the survival chances of an RP?

This question comes more from my unfamiliarity with RPs here on the forum. I do a lot of tabletop RPs. GM's would take turns running a game, and they would would end up like a series of sequels. Individual plots would conclude, followed by another plot with the same setting, characters, and continuity. Were there any RPs that had a few plots that concluded properly before fizzling out? Would those be counted as several successful games concluded by a failure, or only as a single failure overall?

[techmaster-glitch]

This is kind of making me wonder a few things.

Who stopped responding more often; the GMs or the players?

How often were real life complications a factor? Sometimes dropping out of a game is unavoidable.

How often did player or GMs just not have fun with the game, and abandon it? Speaking up and saying something might straighten things out, and get the RP moving again. Or at least let the GM sort out why the RP fizzled, and avoid it next time.

How often did a GM or a player take the time to notify people that they could no longer participate in the game, or let people if know they would be unavailable for a time? Would such notifications increase the survival chances of an RP?

This question comes more from my unfamiliarity with RPs here on the forum. I do a lot of tabletop RPs. GM's would take turns running a game, and they would would end up like a series of sequels. Individual plots would conclude, followed by another plot with the same setting, characters, and continuity. Were there any RPs that had a few plots that concluded properly before fizzling out? Would those be counted as several successful games concluded by a failure, or only as a single failure overall?

To this, I shall post the last part of the original conversation I had when sharing these results;

====
Gammaleo: now whats sad is that we can't really quantify why they failed, because in-part it may be from lack of creativity, and that is very subjective
Techmasterglitch: Yeah. That gets into conclusion-drawing, and no one is equipped for that
» I -could- go through and analyze all the RPs that failed and succeded, noting only objective, quiatifiable things
» like genre, size, detail...
» but that's too much work for 20 minutes xP
====

[Gabi]

You could always check how long it took between the GM's last post and the last post on the topic. That would give us an idea of whether it was the GM or the players that left the game.

[Azlan]

I can remember quite a few RPs that I would like to have seen continue for awhile.  Sadly that has not been the case. 

I would wonder though, what has spawned the need to compile such statistics?

[techmaster-glitch]

I would wonder though, what has spawned the need to compile such statistics?

(as in the first paragraph of my first post) There was no need, it was just something I was personally curious about. I showed it to llearch, and he told me to post it. I'm still waiting for him to explain why

[Azlan]

Curiouser and curiouser, but if llearch said to post it... we must always do what he says to do after all.  This seems like such an odd thing to do with one's free time, that I do not understand the reason for it.  Now, I can understand why some of the people that work for me would undertake a task like this.  I would have to toss the report back to them, because it lacks relevance.

The data consists of raw, numerical statistics.  Factually accurate, thought there may be question as to the validity of the measuring criteria, and empirical, but not useful.  The data is too subjective, too wide open for conclusion.  I do not see useful trend analysis or root cause identification.  

I would find it more interesting to note activity based on month or year.  

Are there seasons or times of the year where there is a larger rise in RPs starting up?  

What is the average life span or even the total time to live?  

Is there a trend tied to specific posters?

What genres are most successful?  Least successful?  

Is there a correlation with rule set?  GM style?

Is there a link to popularity of the GM or even players?


Suffice it to say, what you have cooked up and served is rather mundane.  It is akin to counting the number of cuts of meat one could obtain from a cow and telling that to a starving man.  You should probably break up the project into two to four parts and recruit some additional help to compile the data.  What to do with it once it is collected though...

[techmaster-glitch]

Ummm...you are completely missing the point, and maybe a post or two as well. I did this on a whim, there was no big reason about it, I was just personally curious about the numbers. No, I didn't analyze anything, nor did I ever intend to. And I suppose I'll repost what I showed to Whitefox, when he asked pretty much the exact same things you did;


====
Gammaleo: now whats sad is that we can't really quantify why they failed, because in-part it may be from lack of creativity, and that is very subjective
Techmasterglitch: Yeah. That gets into conclusion-drawing, and no one is equipped for that
» I -could- go through and analyze all the RPs that failed and succeded, noting only objective, quiatifiable things
» like genre, size, detail...
» but that's too much work for 20 minutes xP
====

[Azlan]

Bah, vanity whim.  I thought there was the potential for real quantitative analysis with useful conclusions. 

I redesigned the entire spec for the C3 on x64 architecture on a whim... you don't see me posting my results?

Anyways, has anyone independently validated your results? 

[Gabi]

If you want a deep and detailed analysis, Azlan, feel free to do one yourself. techmaster-glitch isn't working for you and doesn't owe you anything.

[llearch n'n'daCorna]

IMHO, there is insufficient data to perform details analysis on. If there were several hundred data points, we might have enough to break it down. As it stands, any breakdown is going to end up with a statistically insignificant sample, which means any conclusions are suspect.

So I figure tech did exactly the right thing, and stopped where he should. Anything conclusions drawn from this, beyond "about 3 in 4 of all RPs will fail", would be arguing past any meaning.

[WhiteFox]

On the one hand, I have to agree with llearch. There's not a lot of data, and it if there were it'd be laborious to collect.

On the other hand, it seems kind of fatalistic to say "This is our phail, and that's just how it is."

I suppose one conclusion can be made: don't start or join an RP unless you're serious about following through with it.

[Arcalane]

If you want a deep and detailed analysis, Azlan, feel free to do one yourself. techmaster-glitch isn't working for you and doesn't owe you anything.

Or in other words, I think Azlan is Completely Missing The Point.

[Azlan]

If you want a deep and detailed analysis, Azlan, feel free to do one yourself. techmaster-glitch isn't working for you and doesn't owe you anything.

Or in other words, I think Azlan is Completely Missing The Point.

Someone actually got it??!!  When Gabi started snipping, I thought it best to drop it. 

Was it too serious and overdrawn for this gag?

[Sunblink]

Someone actually got it??!!  When Gabi started snipping, I thought it best to drop it. 

Was it too serious and overdrawn for this gag?

I'm not trying to start a fight, but it was a completely understandable mistake. Don't try to make Gabi out to be the bad guy.

[Darkmoon]

Azlan, I don't like your tone in this thread. You can play it off as a joke if you like, but you took it too far. Back off.

And yes, that is an official warning.

[Darkmoon]

You know, this thread got me looking. My RPG (that I would have counted as a fizzle with the way that it died) actually would qualify as a success by these rules. Huh...

[Azlan]

Azlan, I don't like your tone in this thread. You can play it off as a joke if you like, but you took it too far. Back off.

And yes, that is an official warning.

Sorry, my bad.