10/12/12 [DMFA #1360] - Zero Search Results

[RandomMetaphysics]

Something is really, really, reallly wrong here...

These oracles are famous for knowing all things past, present, and future. Now, suddenly, one find itself inapable of divining something (after an eternity of doing so no less).

This makes one wonder what happened to Merlitz even more.

[Talis Mahn]

well, I'm going to take the Harry Dresden position on Merlitz being dead.....No body, not dead! 

[Tapewolf]

well, I'm going to take the Harry Dresden position on Merlitz being dead.....No body, not dead!  

That doesn't necessarily wash in Furrae, as Fluffy explained.  However, this strip does strongly imply that the 'prophecy' was a malicious lie and that the entity providing it was not necessarily a phoenix.  Amber stated at one point that the fiery glow would be impossible to fake by a shapeshifter, but there are other ways.  For instance, tinkering with the adventurers' optic nerves to make them see something which isn't there.

The fact that Aliyka and Merlitz were adventuring as a pair has long made me suspicious of it, since either she would have reported it or she would be dead too.

EDIT: There is an interesting duality in that answer, since by implication she not only doesn't know why such an answer happened, but also that she doesn't know what happened to Merlitz.  If he has been taken out of the Oracles' vision by some means, it is very likely that the phenomenon preventing him being seen is also jamming his life-stone from seeing him.  So he may still be alive.

EDIT EDIT:  Ooh, I wonder.  If the dragons could pull this off (and collectively they do seem to be cosmically powerful), this would be a fantastic way to assassinate 'Cubi:  "Your companion was murdered by a 'Cubi at Home Farm in the outskirts of Zinvth."  "Your companion was murdered by the succubus Talliopa."

[Eli_In_Chains]

I've suspected for a while that the Phoenix Oracle wasn't REALLY a Phoenix Oracle, but I never expected this answer from one. :o Well-played, Amber. Well-played. X3 But, with the information presented, it seems most likely to me that it's someone who wanted the Cubi at Lost Lake SPECIFICALLY dead, as repeating this behavior just wouldn't wash over time. After the fifth or sixth time, someone would ask questions.

So the question is, who knew who was there? We know there were two Cubi at Lost Lake, Dan and Abel... Aaryana and Destania could also have been targets, as they both spent time there. Dan was pretty well-known, obviously, and while it wasn't exactly common knowledge that he was a Cubi, I don't think it would have taken much thought to figure it out. But who would want him dead? Enemies of Cyra clan are likely candidates, which makes pretty much any dragon (or all of them collectively) possible perpetrators. I don't, however, think that the same would hold true if they were actually after Destania, as a dragon would surely have known that she was no longer at Lost Lake. There may have been a plan, though, to attack Dan and endanger him to lure Destania into the open after imprisoning his father didn't work (if that was the intent of imprisoning him).

Aaryana was also well-known, but would be clearly not present, so again, I think dragons are off the table. It's possible, though, that the Nact'Larn clan learned of her presence, and arranged this setup before they realized she was gone. In-story, that seems perfectly plausible; however, in a wider view considering what we know, I don't think that it's all that likely either. The plot just doesn't seem to be building up to that unless it's intended to create a misconception between two groups about what happened. The narrative doesn't, to me, seem to support the idea she was the target.

Abel is the final possibility, and aside from Hizell, I can't think of anyone in specific who would want him dead. There's also the fact that his presence was much more hidden than any of the other Cubi, meaning it would have had to be someone with a lot of resources, in other words a dragon. It's possible that Hizell was after him as the (alleged) final remnant of the clan Siar, and that would seem to fit, but I'm unsure whether that's the case here. The story seems to focus less on Abel than the other characters, so yes, another meta-reasoning conclusion, but I'd rank this one as unlikely too.

Or, perhaps the point was not to actually kill one specific Cubi, but to create conflict. Creating conflict is something the attack has done well, killing a Cubi is not. So that throws the shadowy Creature Council we've seen before into the mix here, too. If they wanted to make something big happen, if they wanted a war between Creatures and Beings, then this would have been a very successful mission. Sowing doubt and mistrust between Beings and Cubi could easily have just been the start. However, I think this one's unlikely, as well, because they didn't know whether Jyrras' technology was being weaponized. They said as much in one of the few meetings we got a look in on. To stage an assault somewhere he frequented often with the intention of creating conflict would have failed if not for Jyrras popping out with that gun, something they could not have planned for. So while it's not off the table by any means, I don't think this is the most likely solution.

tl;dr

My conclusion? Odds are, someone wanted Dan dead or threatened, and wasn't afraid to do it underhandedly. That points to the dragons. Whether killing him was an end unto itself or whether it was an attempt to get Destania vulnerable, I think he must have been the target. Personally I think it's the latter, as a dragon would surely be intelligent enough to realize he's more valuable alive than dead, at least until Destania's been killed.

Epileptic tree theory that just occurred to me, Destania had the knowledge to set up every detail of this attack if she wanted to. Why would the adventurers have been sure there was a Cubi at Lost Lake? They sensed the shifting magic on Alexsi when the real Alexsi had been kidnapped. By Biggs and Destania. Who's been scheming and plotting the most lately? Everyone, but Destania more than most others. Who would have known there was a real Cubi there? Destania, for one. She raised one of them and probably knew about Abel. Why would she have done this sort of thing? Well, she wants the dragons gone. That kind of thing takes people with convictions (Dan) and adventuring skill (Dan again) who have a reason to go kill them (revenge, if Dan thinks that this was set up by the dragons). I wouldn't put money on this theory, but it seems possible, and worthy of a schemey scheming schemer like her. But, I am unsure how she would have masked the Oracles' vision, which leads us right back to Dragons, I think.

EDIT: Also, strip number is 1360, not 1359.

[Tapewolf]

I've suspected for a while that the Phoenix Oracle wasn't REALLY a Phoenix Oracle, but I never expected this answer from one. :o Well-played, Amber. Well-played. X3 But, with the information presented, it seems most likely to me that it's someone who wanted the Cubi at Lost Lake SPECIFICALLY dead, as repeating this behavior just wouldn't wash over time. After the fifth or sixth time, someone would ask questions.

If you're referring to my idea, I meant that the fake Oracle would give each group of adventurers a different 'hit'.  The further away they are from their home guilds, the better since then the groups would have little reason to compare notes.  Maybe eventually someone would notice an uptick in the number of 'Cubi kills, but by that point the campaign would likely have achieved its aims.

[Eli_In_Chains]

I was more thinking on the fact that the adventuring guild seems to behave similarly on some levels to a police force, apparently maintaining files on individual cases. Maybe five or six was an exaggeration, but I don't think that it would take long for someone in one guild to hear that "Hey, this other adventurer just did exactly the same thing on the unusual advice of a Phoenix Oracle a few months ago" and have someone look into it. Or even that eventually, someone would notice that these are not by any means the kinds of answers a Phoenix Oracle would give, and rather than fact-checking their claim, would fact-check the Phoenix instead. People aren't all suspicious enough to figure that out, but some are, and the more often it's repeated, the more likely it becomes that one of the ploys will be pulled on an adventurer that is that suspicious.

[ANTIcarrot]

If I read this correctly, that was TWO 'don't knows'. One for what happened to Pyroduck. One for who or what that Oracle really was. Though given how unsurprised she is acting, this is probably not an unknown phenominon to her people.

So a few possibilities
1) Uber powerful magic is involved
2) Pyroduck has gone serious off-world, and is simply beyond their range
3) Quantum uncertainty can exist on the macro-level in this reality.

I'd assume the Oracles can still track his movements though. What was he doing aweek after he left the inn? Two seeks? Threes weeks? Ops! Can't fid him! Two weeks and done day? Two weeks and two days...?

[Tapewolf]

If I read this correctly, that was TWO 'don't knows'. One for what happened to Pyroduck

Merlitz, right?

[Yarott]

I don't know if this fits in this situation, but...

[Ignuus66]

"Beware of he who would deny you access to information, for in his heart he dreams himself your master."

[Alondro]

There is another possibility.  The fact that this oracle cannot even see what happened could indicate that someone is directly altering fate, warping it to such a degree that the oracles cannot pierce the mist of uncertainty.

But who...

(At the same moment, in the Zybach Empire, Issac Newton cackles in triumph, "At last I have perfected the Fate Alteration Engine!  MUWAH HA HA HA!!)

[joshofspam]

Hmmmmmmm...Well Mab's did say something about Pip trying to get people killed while they were on their cake mission.

Whatever secrets Pip holds, could this whole situation be Pip's doing?

[Eboreg]

I can think of three reasons this prospect is as terrifying as the oracle makes it out to be.

a) Blocking the sight of a phoenix oracle is supposed to be impossible.
b) Blocking the sight of a phoenix oracle is theoretically possible but it's never been done before.
c) Anyone who can and will block the sight of a phoenix oracle is insanely powerful and up to something horrifying.

[Brunhidden]

consensus 1- it is not a 'fake oracle' in the sense that some other shapeshifter/illusionist put on a bird disguise. if it were the adventurers would be fooled, but mamma duck would not, this fake would be spotted, reported, and possibly immoliated



something seems.... off


consensus 2- despite us not having been given a very thorough analysis of the limit of a phoenix oracles powers we believe that only godlike intervention could circumvent mamma duck from answering the question. while it is possible that we are overestimating this, perhaps some less severe yet still uncommon event could block a reading, its likely that yes whatever is going on is to some extent powerful or incomprehensible.
theories on more 'mundane' and less scary possibilities- perhaps he has some kind of uber protection spell on him blocking both the gem and the phoenix powers, perhaps he is now beyond the range of their service (in an anti magic zone, the mountains of the lost, has a fae boon or is visiting one for tea in the realm of madness, has some time travel don't ask the details are complex but he did this from the future), perhaps the phoenix powers rely on something changeable like his perception of himself and him drinking from a pool of memory wiping removes his 'me' signature from searchable ability, or perhaps he fell between worlds and is somewhere 'else' and thus technically reads as nonexistence

consensus 3- the readers as well as the cast assume that 'phoenix cant see' instantly means 'super horrible oh lordy thats gonna hurt'. while a valid assumption, consider the pattern of what we assume to happen actually happening




five

[Tapewolf]

consensus 1- it is not a 'fake oracle' in the sense that some other shapeshifter/illusionist put on a bird disguise. if it were the adventurers would be fooled, but mamma duck would not, this fake would be spotted, reported, and possibly immoliated

Only if mamma duck actually did see it.  It looks like they didn't.

Now, an interesting question is whether they made it to the Oracles at all.  It might, for instance, be all in their minds, in which case the phoenix disguise becomes simple, since it never really happened.  In a world where thoughts can be read, it would be foolish to discount someone doing the reverse.  (See also 'With A Strange Device' by Eric Frank Russell, a cold war SF thriller thing which does this)

[TacticalError]

Right then. Time to jump in on the thread with many theories.

First problem is that it's difficult to figure out reasons for the lack of info without knowing the Phoenix Oracle mechanics. If it's some cosmic power that was given to them in ages past by the Fae or something, Pip is my prime guess as the master behind it all (goodness, at this rate, Pip's going to become the new Aniz) as he's the only character we know of who's both powerful and malicious enough to fit. Hizell also, but I'm still rather unsure about the how much dragons can really do.

If it's 'just' a massively powerful version of your standard mage spying spell, that opens it up. As some have suggested, the Creature Council of Shadowy Mystery could be trying to pull something, and they likely have access to a powerful (or group of slightly less powerful) mage to cast some interference thingy. Another creature, probably an angel or demon, could have the connections or individual power to get the same results, although DP, Kria and co. have shown no indications of such a plan, and we don't know of any others... I think.

As to the whole 'who was the Phoenix oracle that told the BOB about Merlitz' thing, it could have just been a team of mercenaries or such hired to do the impersonation. Shapeshift, cast fire immunity, hide a mage behind a rock and have him/her hold a flame around the shapeshifter's head. People are easy to fool if they see what they're expecting, and I doubt the BOB were thinking straight to begin with at that point.

[joshofspam]

I think the biggest disturbing thing is that there are many focuses to this which getting such a response as this is a little disconcerting.

"I don't know."?

Depending on how the mechanics work for the Phoenix's to know stuff. That might mean that Merlitz's current situation and prier, the whole meeting with BOB and the Phoenix and a whole other bunch of facts are being either blocked or simply beyond their ability to know.

That's a lot of potential blank spots to come up with an "I don't know" to answer Ducky's question. At least a small clue would be something, but she simply says "I don't know".

[Ganurath]

Impersonating a Phoenix wouldn't be THAT hard, with the right combination of magic. I'm sure Furrae has a mental illusion that makes people see what they expect to see, or something like that. This new factor is tricky, though: What can fool the Oracle's all knowing nature?

1. Another Oracle. Unlikely, though, with a lack of motive.
2. A Fae might be able to, since they're outside Oracle jurisdiction. As to motive... I have no clue.
3. Fa'lina is all-knowing within her jurisdiction, so obscuring the all-knowing nature of others may be within the power of Clan Leaders. If Abel's father faked his death somehow, possibly by stealing the identity of Alexsi's biological mother, it's possible he could have become a clan leader, and is now throwing troubles at the tabloid-exposed Abel.
4. The war between Dragon and Cubi may still be going on in the shadows, and a Dragon could be impersonating an Oracle to send adventurers after noncombatant Cubi to thin their ranks before the war resumes in earnest.
5. An arbitrarily powerful creature with the proper warding magic is a Jyrras fangirl, and is insanely jealous of Abel. Researching the bachelor of the year and his favorite hangouts lead her to the article on Lost Lake Inn, where Merlitz was bodyguard. Therefore, she killed Merlitz, impersonated an Oracle, and sent the dead adventurer's companion to Kill For Her Ship.

[killpurakat]

Just something I thought of, to throw in the mix.

Merlitz was interested in finding humans, or at least proving their existence. And he did so, at one point, when a human stumbled from his own dimension to Merlitz's dimension. It's possible that similar circumstances have taken place. Merlitz might not be on Furrae anymore and may, in fact, be in another dimension. Perhaps with Aliyka, which would explain her absence from the current speculation as well.

And to make matters more complicated, I'm betting the Oracles can't see into places not Furrae. Meaning the Fae realm, Fa'lina's academy, etc., are all out of the realm of Phoenix knowledge. So if a creature abducted them into a pocket dimension... good luck on finding them.

[Tapewolf]

Merlitz was interested in finding humans, or at least proving their existence. And he did so, at one point, when a human stumbled from his own dimension to Merlitz's dimension. It's possible that similar circumstances have taken place. Merlitz might not be on Furrae anymore and may, in fact, be in another dimension. Perhaps with Aliyka, which would explain her absence from the current speculation as well.

That could certainly explain the Merlitz side of the equation, but not the fake prophecy.

[killpurakat]

Merlitz was interested in finding humans, or at least proving their existence. And he did so, at one point, when a human stumbled from his own dimension to Merlitz's dimension. It's possible that similar circumstances have taken place. Merlitz might not be on Furrae anymore and may, in fact, be in another dimension. Perhaps with Aliyka, which would explain her absence from the current speculation as well.

That could certainly explain the Merlitz side of the equation, but not the fake prophecy.

Never said I was going to be helpful and solve problems.   I'd rather just ask more and more questions.

But... how about a brand new question (that is possibly an answer): can oracles be mind controlled for a short period of time without their knowing? Then, you aren't faking the Phoenix glow, it is an oracle speaking, and it is speaking falsehood.

[Ignuus66]

Isn't there that one wierd rogue oracle?

[Mischa]

I just find it interesting that Mab's omniscience is better than the oracle's. 

Then again, Mab is quite awesome...

[Starcat5]

Isn't there that one wierd rogue oracle?

Is there? The only oddball I remember is that one who goes around mindraping anyone who assaults (I'd say "kills", but Phoenix just respawn at a random location) one of her fellows.

I just find it interesting that Mab's omniscience is better than the oracle's. 

Then again, Mab is quite awesome...

Ah, but she can't remember any of it once she leaves the Fae realms. Somewhat less useful, that.

[Hanii Puppy]

There is another possibility.  The fact that this oracle cannot even see what happened could indicate that someone is directly altering fate, warping it to such a degree that the oracles cannot pierce the mist of uncertainty.

But who...

(At the same moment, in the Zybach Empire, Issac Newton cackles in triumph, "At last I have perfected the Fate Alteration Engine!  MUWAH HA HA HA!!)

Do the laws of quantum physics apply in Furrae?

[Eli_In_Chains]

Considering that they have working computers the size of modern laptops that don't use magic, at least some quantum mechanical laws are necessarily in place. RAM wouldn't work without them. That said, however, let's keep in mind that Amber probably wouldn't tie a plot point up in complicated quantum physics. They'd be hard to explain and describe in the thread, and that would make more work for her. >.>

[Prroul]

Yea... not much can put one over on the Phoenix Oracles...

At this point, I'd say 'Fae', only that seems counter-intuitive, considering Mab is trying to prevent that very thing from happening until Jyrras can build the toy that can win the war, so to speak. Then again, that's only Mab, and maybe a few others. Who knows what kind of factionalism exists in the Fae Realm, and who might want to yank on Mab's chain.

Ooohhh... that does bring up an interesting theory... what if this is just a side-ploy against Mab by another Fae? After all, you can't really 'kill' a Fae, not even other Fae can. But you can make them hurt by killing their friends. Of course, having to work through obscure, arbitrary, and odd loopholes when operating in the moral realm, you can't just do so directly. This is the perfect 'smoking gun' which can create a war between Beings and Creatures, and in the process, Mab's friends get whacked.

Yea, that sounds about right for a Fae... create a war between the Beings and the Creatures over technology just to get a couple of people killed because they happen to be Mab's friends. Plus, we've actually SEEN Fae do the whole fiery nimbus thing, therefore it is certainly something they can mimic.

As another option... well, there's lot of stuff out there that can muck about with Beings. There's more than a couple of 'Cubi clans whose abilities tend to specialize in pulling this kind of thing off. Granted, it would take something like a clan leader to both temporarily control an Oracle AND to keep that Oracle from realizing she'd been tampered with, but theoretically possible. However, that pre-supposes a Cubi pulling the strings, when that is rather unlikely considering the target was a Cubi. They may not always get along together, but no one really wants to go stirring up Adventurers in a Cubi hunt.

Now, a Dragon would have a LOT of motive (killing off the last of Cyra's clan), and they have a LOT of power, particularly the older ones. However, their power tends to be more blunt and direct... along the lines of "damn near impossible to kill, breath weapon which will fry anything, claws and teeth capable of puncturing YES..." while they are cunning and crafty plotters, and do love to take their time holding a grudge, not many dragons would be capable of manipulating an Oracle like that. Not without causing one heck of a ruckus.

And that leaves... demons. Which is a plausible theory, if one is really that damn powerful. Granted, Demons are rather high on the power scale, and it is not unreasonable to think that a demon could have powers of manipulation. However, we're talking about a Demon with phenomenal, cosmic powers... without the itty bitty living space problem. It's plausible, I guess, but not very likely. A motive would also be required. Unless this is something DP is doing, and we have zero indication that DP is capable of anything REMOTELY on this scale (unless you consider creating the undead race, which was an accident). Perhaps if one of the more powerful demons found out what Jyrras was really up to in his lab, and wanted to spark things off... I could see that. Maybe. But again... we would have to be talking about one of the most powerful Demons in existence to pull off a mind job on an Oracle like that.

The problem with someone manipulating an Oracle is that the theoretical puppetmaster would have to 1) Manage to actually DO so, 2) Do so subtly enough that the victim in question doesn't catch on, and 3) be able to keep all the other Oracles from noticing. Any of these three things is a feat of exceptional power. All three together are what is necessary to pull this off.

[Tapewolf]

Now, a Dragon would have a LOT of motive (killing off the last of Cyra's clan), and they have a LOT of power, particularly the older ones. However, their power tends to be more blunt and direct... along the lines of "damn near impossible to kill, breath weapon which will fry anything, claws and teeth capable of puncturing YES..." while they are cunning and crafty plotters, and do love to take their time holding a grudge, not many dragons would be capable of manipulating an Oracle like that. Not without causing one heck of a ruckus.

I think they could and would.  If we look at page 841, Rose says that Dragons and Fae are in the Furrae universe because it doesn't matter if they break it.  So it looks to me like Dragons have some serious cosmic-level power.  It would not surprise me if they were the ones who created some of the races, such as 'Cubi, Angels and Demons as some kind of experiment.

[Prroul]

Now, a Dragon would have a LOT of motive (killing off the last of Cyra's clan), and they have a LOT of power, particularly the older ones. However, their power tends to be more blunt and direct... along the lines of "damn near impossible to kill, breath weapon which will fry anything, claws and teeth capable of puncturing YES..." while they are cunning and crafty plotters, and do love to take their time holding a grudge, not many dragons would be capable of manipulating an Oracle like that. Not without causing one heck of a ruckus.

I think they could and would.  If we look at page 841, Rose says that Dragons and Fae are in the Furrae universe because it doesn't matter if they break it.  So it looks to me like Dragons have some serious cosmic-level power.  It would not surprise me if they were the ones who created some of the races, such as 'Cubi, Angels and Demons as some kind of experiment.

If that's the case, then how did the Cubi not get annihilated in the Dragon-Cubi wars?

Again, Dragons might have the power, but they tend to use it less subtly. Less "Xanatos Roulette" and more "ROFLSTOMP".

[joshofspam]

Now, a Dragon would have a LOT of motive (killing off the last of Cyra's clan), and they have a LOT of power, particularly the older ones. However, their power tends to be more blunt and direct... along the lines of "damn near impossible to kill, breath weapon which will fry anything, claws and teeth capable of puncturing YES..." while they are cunning and crafty plotters, and do love to take their time holding a grudge, not many dragons would be capable of manipulating an Oracle like that. Not without causing one heck of a ruckus.

I think they could and would.  If we look at page 841, Rose says that Dragons and Fae are in the Furrae universe because it doesn't matter if they break it.  So it looks to me like Dragons have some serious cosmic-level power.  It would not surprise me if they were the ones who created some of the races, such as 'Cubi, Angels and Demons as some kind of experiment.

If that's the case, then how did the Cubi not get annihilated in the Dragon-Cubi wars?

Again, Dragons might have the power, but they tend to use it less subtly. Less "Xanatos Roulette" and more "ROFLSTOMP".

From what I can see, it's the dragons own mortality that limits them.

Can't kill a Fae, but you can kill a dragon it seems. Remember that Cyra managed to kill a dragon to obtain a tri-wing status unintentionally. She just wanted to take their place as the towns guardian.

Also while small cubi are something they can kill by the dozens in their full dragon form, Tri-wings are at least as big as the dragons themselves. Not to mention it sounds like there were far more cubi back then.