The Prophecy of Charles! D:

[Alondro]

To make sure I am eventually known as the greatesr seer the world has ever known, I am now going to publicly announce what I've been forecasting amongst those I know well for 3 years.

The world economy will plummet into a full-fledged depression in June, 2009.  And we shall at last see once and for all why an economy based on global interdependence is a disaster-in-waiting.

There, I've issued the world a challenge to prove me wrong!  But, the indicators I see all point to the inevitable culmination of decades of poor economic planning and uncontrolled population growth.

Interestingly, it does seem to line up with some other prophecy... but as I know coincidence can play a factor and many patterns repeat themselves throughout history, I must wait for some other key indicators before I make the connections.

If an asteroid falls into the Western Pacific and wipes out a third of the population next year, for instance, that'll make it pretty definite.

Still, it is undeniable that a Depression-style economic collapse this time around will be exponentially more devastating than in the 1930's.  The world is far more crowded, people aren't capable of doing anything themselves in most developed nations (just look at how people responded after Katrina, versus the old San Francisco earthquake).  There's no where to go anymore, no way to turn to the land, and the government is in dire financial shape with no way to support more public programs (especially if all the stock-based fortunes of the rich suddenly vanish and there's no one left to tax... except the poor!)

Oh yes, humanity has set itself up for quite a crushing fall, and I'm almost certain by now that it's about to tip over.

[Valynth]

Okay, first off, We aren't quite as dependant on each other as you seem the believe.  Only the completely lobotomized are totally reliant on others.

Secondly, the world is no where near it's population limit (India has just as many people as China, but still manages to feed their populace and export food even).  You also fail to consider that with more population there are more people that are available to grow more food or invent more ways of growing food.

Essentially, we've survived depressions in the past, and will do so again.  Your doom and gloom predictions have been around for far longer than I've been here and every time the date happens, you just say "Oh, it was really THIS date"  and move it back a bit.

In terms of uncontrollable destruction.  An asteroid that can actually impact the earth will have a far reaching global effect; more than simply one third.  Odds are that if it hits, it will cause mass extinctions and our race is very prominent on the list of possible species.  Another note is that the odds are far more favorable of we humans destroying the planet ourselves, so you may want to update your doom odds.

[Alondro]

I stand by June 2009!   

Besides, the asteroid's not part of the prophecy.  That's only something else that could go wrong later.   And if it's a little asteroid it'd only kill off a few people.  Or it could be a whole dwarf planet and destroy the Earth entirely.  There's a whole range of destruction from nothing to everything depending on the size.  So 1/3 is a valid possibility!   

The markets are quite intertwined.  Just look at what the fear of a recession did to worldwide markets in a few days.  Imagine if we actually got into a bad one.  It'd be an unstoppable death spiral. 

[superluser]

If this does materialize as a major recession, I think that we may be in for a good old-fashioned Weimar Germany style depression.

You know, the thing that (in part) caused the Great Depression?

The bad news is that countries all over the world will have a major economic downturn.

The good news is that GM and Ford will be manufacturing the cheapest cars on the market.

Oh, and we'll all be trillionaires.

[Darkdragon]

An interesting reason, interesting indeed.

While I do have a whole theory of how mankind is going to wipe themselves off by around 2060, I will not deny that my theory does not have an economical recession as the tipping point where the whole sequence starts, sometime, in my approximation in later this year / early 2009. What I am interested is to know how you have come up with your date. Would you care to explain?

[Pagan]

I kinda doubt extinction. If that did happen, earth would be a lot more boring. Nah, but I do see a collapse of the US, maybe some other big countries. Basically leading to an ecomonical and technological revert. I doubt it'll happen by 2009. Though, if that did happen, my plans would certainly need adjusting.

A bit more surival gear, defense training, learning what berries *not* to eat...

[Valynth]

The markets are quite intertwined.  Just look at what the fear of a recession did to worldwide markets in a few days.  Imagine if we actually got into a bad one.  It'd be an unstoppable death spiral. 

Actually it was fear of an AMERICAN recession.  And that only affects the market because we're THE LARGEST PLAYER in it.  Just because we hit a lull, doesn't mean the other economies suddenly shrink.  In fact, many poor countries stand to look better off if America stopped setting such a high standard.

In short, all economies shrink at some point, it doesn't have to be disasterous like the Great Depression was because we actually learned from our mistakes and now know how to soften the shrinking until we can expand again.

[Reese Tora]

Silly charles, everyone knows it's 2010 that the economy is going to take a major dump.

According to what I've heard, that's when the housing market is predicted to hit it's lowest and begin to rebound.

[Eibborn]

That's okay, the world's going to end at 2012 anyway. Fact.

[Cogidubnus]

Darn. And they kept telling me it was going to be that giant hadron reactor.

[Valynth]

Eh, the smart money is on Iran's nuclear program developing and using a nuke resulting M.A.D. around 2020.

Silly muslims and their My Faith=lead suit and 5000 Mile distance from explosion theory.

[Omega]

Good thing I live in the place  that's so remote that it will survive any fall of modern civilization.

[rabid_fox]

I've been hearing this all my life. I remember that the world was too populated and doomed to economic self-destruction in 1988 (Somalia, anyone?).

The infinite resourcefulness of humanity will march relentlessly onwards. Hopefully at the expense of tigers.

[superluser]

You're all wrong.

The world will end in May 2008.

And it's going to start in Philadelphia, Charles!

Yes.  In May of this year, there's going to be a missile attack on Philadelphia, and this missile will carry Ebola, which will destroy the world.

[rabid_fox]

My sister works with Ebola (she's a scientist).

Apparently, it's nothing to be afraid of, if you have the right *insert science mumbo-jumbo here* to break it down and neutralise it.

She knows stuff.

[superluser]

My sister works with Ebola (she's a scientist).

Apparently, it's nothing to be afraid of, if you have the right *insert science mumbo-jumbo here* to break it down and neutralise it.

Apparently, she didn't explain it well enough.  It's pretty ineffective as a bioterror agent, but not because we can neutralize it (because as far as I know, we can't neutralize it).  Here's what I said elsewhere:

If they wanted a bioterror attack, they'd use a Grue.

Seriously, Ebola is a shitty bioterror agent. Burns through people too fast, and the fatal kind is not airborne, so if you can quarantine the city, decent medical care would make the fatalities minimal.

There are a few different types of Ebola. Ebola Zaire, Sudan, Tai and Bundibugyo are the ones that kill people. They are not airborne.

Ebola Reston is airborne, and it tears through monkeys. Its typical symptoms for humans include slight headache.

Ebola Reston is kind of like a neutron bomb: Kills monkeys, but leaves humans intact.

[Reese Tora]

You're all wrong.

The world will end in May 2008.

And it's going to start in Philadelphia, Charles!

Yes.  In May of this year, there's going to be a missile attack on Philadelphia, and this missile will carry Ebola, which will destroy the world.

close, but not quite, you got the state right...

It's going to be Pittsburgh, and it's going to happen in July... possibly late in June

--edit--

oops, I somehow missed the bit about ebola missles... I just meant the generic end of the world

[rabid_fox]

She probably explained it excellently, except that I was nodding, smiling and thinking about pie for most of the conversation.

[Ryudo Lee]

Mmm pie.  What?  End of the world?  Really?  Please elaborate.  (...mmm pie...)

EDIT:

Actually I do have something related to this...

Even though prophecies of gloom and doom are rampant, it does seem like the goverment is trying to at least stem the tide... as evidenced here.

[Shadrok]

If an asteroid falls into the Western Pacific and wipes out a third of the population next year, for instance, that'll make it pretty definite.

Does it have to be an asteroid?
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080126/ap_on_go_ot/dead_satellite

I know during the cold war there were satellites sent up with nukes on them, and if I remember right at some point one of the Russian nuclear satellites crashed into Canada (fortunately it didn't detonate).

[llearch n'n'daCorna]

... fortunately?

You -do- know those things are designed, not with one failsafe, but with just about -every- system with -three- failover safeties, and all the safeties have to work before you can get the thing to explode, right?

You can probably take a nuke apart with a sledgehammer, and it won't explode. 'course, you'd probably die form the toxic fumes from the propellant etc, which is why they're such a pain to decommission. Actually getting them to explode usually requires an enable sequence, and then an ignite sequence, and the thump into a hillside is just too disorganised to manage the ignite bit.

[Valynth]

Actually a nuke CAN explode, but without the removal of the safeties, all that explodes is the explosive that was meant to trigger the reaction and that only has the effect of a dirty bomb(essentially a bomb with radioactive materials strapped to it).

[llearch n'n'daCorna]

Point.

Still, that's not exactly as easy as rolling a car into it, now, is it? Not unless the thing was going to go off anyway...

[Valynth]

True, but the real problem isn't going to be the crash=explosion idea.  It's the "radioactive materials are still contained in the satelite and it landed in an Islamic nation" possibility that is most disturbing.

Of course, they most likely won't have the means to make a functional nuke, but a large dirty bomb can be very effective for their purposes.

[gh0st]

guys seriously prophecies of doom have been springing up since before the middle ages, but we aren't dead yet and we still have pizza so i think that we are all okay for now but that doesn't mean that you shouldn't try to fix some of the problems that we are facing. i mean America needs to get a subscription to a weight loss/diet program and soon enough no matter how rich you are it's going to become impossible for food to get to the inner parts of cities. thats where we start making sky scraper farms!

[GabrielsThoughts]

I dissagree, technology has advanced to the point where

1) there is technology to desalinate water (which means any water shortages would be caused by greedy business men.)

2) Governments pay farmers not to farm on fertile soil,  so the value of certain crops remains higher on the world market.

3) there is technology that condenses the water vapor in the air we breathe...which more or less can produce 2 liters  of water from the air within seconds (saw this technology being used in newscasts after hurricane Katrina.)

4) solar, wind, and geothermal technology has been developed. and the technology has improved dramatically within the last 20 years.

5) as much as I hate to point this out Insects, soy beans, and peanuts can be used as protein substitutes... and there is no shortage of insects in the world.

6) humans have the technology to build islands from synthetic and natural materials.

7) not everything costs money.

the amount of pollution that existed during the 70's was far greater and more damaging  than the Pollution/emissions that are being produced now.

[Alondro]

Yep, and all of that is dependent on humanity not acting selfish and destructive as soon as something goes wrong...

*looks at Kenya's current situation*

Somehow, I don't get the impression humans are fond of doing the right thing.

So as I was saying... DOOM!   

EDIT:  Hee hee hee hee hee!  DOOM approaches!

All serious economists are saying the same thing.  This is a stupid, shortsighted idea from the bipartisan bimbos.  Nothing addresses the trade gap, nothing addresses the fact that about 25-30% of the entire federal budget could be trimmed from all the blindingly obvious waste and pet projects.  Nothing addresses the fact that to fund this massive rebate the US is going to have to borrow it all... from China!  China practically owns the US as it is, and with the dollar slipping constantly, we could be looking at the US defaulting on its loans quite soon.

This rebate will only delay things for a little while until the inevitable reality of rising inflation and burgeoning national debt hits hard...

How long you ask?  Well, several Wall Street and other financial reports I've read are already hinting at a time when a full-blown recession (or worse) will hit:   mid-2009.

BWAH HA HA HA HA HA!!!